Power Pendulum

I had a discussion on the state of affairs in our country with a learned friend the other day. A rare luxury for me these days it is, to engage in academic discourse, devoid of politics. Rarer still is the opportunity for me to engage in conversation with someone who does not have political interests. Hence it was a most refreshing hour and a half for me, just to have a cup of coffee, in a quiet setting, discussing potential opportunities and pitfalls for our country, with someone who had no political interests. Something which my friend said has prompted me to write this Post.

The late Twentieth Century has seen a shifting of power in the world, both in the international arena, as well as in the domestic contexts of nations. The fall of the Soviet Union has triggered a whole series of events in the entire world, the consequences of which are still being played out. Much of the inter-relationships of events and consequences are too profound for me to dwell on. Nevertheless, one thing is obvious : the world order is changing very rapidly.

The immediate “flow on” from the fall of the Soviet Union could be seen in the Eastern and Central European countries. An increased push for the exercising of the people’s will in these countries was most palpable. All these culminated in the “various coloured” revolutions and movements. Sequentially, we could see this wave spreading to the New World and Greater Asia and down to the tiny archipelagic nation in South Asia. Finally, the people of the world, the downtrodden, enslaved, disempowered people of the world were slowly awakening to reality. The hegemony which had controlled the masses of the world was slowly being broken. Human Rights and Democracy were quickly becoming synonymous with bread, butter, rice, curry and even water in many households. Is the New World Order gathering momentum?

If one reviews what has happened, is happening, in Burma, Georgia, the Ukraine, Thailand, Pakistan, Mexico, Cuba, Tibet, China, Myanmar, Bhutan, Nepal, the Maldives, and many other nations in transition to democracy, one may observe one common factor which is driving the dynamics of social aspirations in these countries. It is a rebellion by the people against tyranny, injustice and disempowerment. However, it can easily be argued that while this rebellion has surfaced strongly, the very people who aspire to “something different” may not be awfully clear as to what constitutes the “something different”. As a result, the term democracy now has almost as many meanings and definitions as the number of people who aspire to “something different”.

If one translates these simple aspirations of people into academic language, they want Democracy. They want a system where Government has the power to execute policy for the public good, where the public good is determined by their representatives, and their representatives to act as watch dog over the government. They also want a justice system which is free from bias and undue influence. Together, and in concert, these three powers of the state have to perform to provide the checks and balances which will protect the people from tyranny. Tyranny of the executive, tyranny of the majority in the Legislature and tyranny of authoritarian judges. Excesses from the one will have to be curbed by the other two.

Depending on the socio-political scenario in a country, the pendulum of power shifts slightly from one to the other at times. However, if the shift exceeds the tolerance levels of the system taken as a whole, the system could easily crash. Look at the cases of Pakistan and Thailand. Power has shifted from the Executive to the Judiciary to the Legislature in excessive fashion at various points in time, and the system balance was upset every time. When the three branches of the state fail to balance each other, a fourth power has to intervene, or the space for a fourth power intervention is created and such intervention can easily be justified. This fourth power invariably becomes the military. The cases of Pakistan and Thailand illustrate this amply. The result is disastrous and often quite difficult to reverse. Because power corrupts, and the military is the strongest power. When the strongest power is corrupted, what can anyone do?

Something which has been weighing on my mind is the history and status quo in the Maldives. The Maldivian society still has a strong element of feudalism in it. Except for a brief period during Kilegefanu’s Prime Ministership, and Nasir's Presidency, the country has never even seen a semblance of the rule of law. The last thirty years has left almost indelible marks of an authoritarian executive. The Legislature and the Judiciary were almost non-existent. The Reform Movement has shifted some power to the Legislature. It looks like the next Parliamentary election may bring about even stronger power to the Parliament. However, judging by the way things are going now, I would make a tentative prediction that if MDP wins a majority in Parliament, we will start seeing a weakened Parliament again with too much influence of the President creeping back into Parliament. The Judiciary is extremely weak. Public expectation for good governance is at an all time high. If the Judiciary is not strengthened rapidly and proper independence is not accorded to it, the Pendulum of Power may shift back and forth for a while and settle on one or the other, out of tolerance range again.

The big question is, will the military move in then?